FIGURE

ackman

4 events (3 clean) · |AR| day 0 13.1% · hit rate 75%

DIRECTIONAL CAR BY WEEK

Does the implied move persist, revert, or grow?

Every studied post, most recent first

call

figure

ticker

date from

date to

date	figure	ticker	call	day-0 AR	dir w4	concurrence	flags
2025-04-17	ackman	HTZ	bullish	36.14%	-19.1%	▲ 70/93 go 11 miss
2025-04-07	ackman	SPY	bearish	0.00%	0.0%		90-day tariff pause announcement on 2025-04-09
2025-02-07	ackman	UBER	bullish	7.32%	16.1%	▲ 53/93 go 12 miss
2025-01-13	ackman	HHH	bullish	8.83%	-1.4%	▲ 13/93 go 69 miss

legend

AR: abnormal return — the day's actual return minus the market-model expected return
|AR|: size of the abnormal return, direction ignored
CAR: cumulative abnormal return — daily ARs summed over a horizon
dir: directional CAR — CAR signed by the post's call; positive means the market moved the post's way
w1 / w4 / w13: 1-, 4- and 13-week horizons, 5 trading days per week
call: the post's implied direction — bullish or bearish
confounded: event overlapping earnings, a split or similar corporate news — flagged and excluded from the clean count