EVENT-STUDY BACKTEST
Who moves markets with a post — and whether the tape agrees
post trump 2026-07-01 +0.014 · trade Sheldon Whitehouse 2026-07-08 +0.000
trade Sheldon Whitehouse 2026-07-08 -1.149
trade Sheldon Whitehouse 2026-07-08 -1.149
trade John Boozman 2026-06-16 -0.535
trade Tommy Tuberville 2026-07-16 -0.997
jehoshaphat†
19.6%
MEAN |AR| DAY 0
▲ dir 19.6% · hit 100%
muddy-waters†
19.2%
MEAN |AR| DAY 0
▲ dir 19.2% · hit 100%
ackman†
13.1%
MEAN |AR| DAY 0
▲ dir 13.1% · hit 75%
fuzzy-panda
8.3%n.s.
MEAN |AR| DAY 0
▲ dir 8.3% · hit 80%
musk†
5.6%
MEAN |AR| DAY 0
▲ dir 5.5% · hit 80%
trump†
3.7%
MEAN |AR| DAY 0
▲ dir 2.0% · hit 53%
burry†
2.8%
MEAN |AR| DAY 0
▲ dir 2.8% · hit 67%
hindenburg
2.3%n.s.
MEAN |AR| DAY 0
▲ dir 2.3% · hit 100%
Raw moving power, day-0 abnormal return
| figure | n / clean | |AR| day 0 | dir w4 | dir w13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| jehoshaphat† | 1 / 1 | 19.6% | 11.2% | — |
| muddy-waters† | 3 / 3 | 19.2% | 17.9% | 59.0% |
| ackman† | 4 / 3 | 13.1% | -1.1% | 2.0% |
| fuzzy-panda | 5 / 5 | 8.3% | 19.5% | 44.7% |
| musk† | 5 / 5 | 5.6% | 2.0% | -0.5% |
| trump† | 17 / 15 | 3.7% | 6.6% | 3.7% |
| burry† | 3 / 3 | 2.8% | 12.3% | 24.8% |
| hindenburg | 1 / 1 | 2.3% | -2.8% | 48.1% |
Does the implied move persist, revert, or grow?
Every studied post, most recent first
| date | figure | ticker | call | day-0 AR | dir w4 | concurrence | flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-01 | trump | MU | bullish | -11.52% | — |
| |
| 2026-06-18 | musk | TSLA | bullish | -0.14% | -0.7% |
| |
| 2026-06-16 | jehoshaphat | GIL | bearish | -19.59% | 11.2% |
| |
| 2026-06-11 | muddy-waters | ENSG | bearish | -3.09% | -11.4% |
| |
| 2026-06-10 | fuzzy-panda | TE | bearish | -5.65% | 15.2% |
| |
| 2026-05-08 | trump | DELL | bullish | 10.51% | 43.9% |
| |
| 2026-04-20 | fuzzy-panda | FRMI | bearish | -17.14% | -7.6% |
| |
| 2026-04-10 | trump | PLTR | bullish | -1.50% | -9.7% |
| |
| 2025-11-04 | burry | NVDA | bearish | -2.13% | 15.2% |
| |
| 2025-11-04 | burry | PLTR | bearish | -6.42% | 21.8% |
| |
| 2025-10-31 | burry | SPY | bearish | 0.00% | 0.0% | ||
| 2025-10-30 | fuzzy-panda | EOSE | bearish | 0.17% | 11.6% |
| |
| 2025-10-10 | fuzzy-panda | RCAT | bearish | -4.47% | 55.8% |
| |
| 2025-10-10 | trump | SPY | bearish | 0.00% | 0.0% | ||
| 2025-09-15 | musk | TSLA | bullish | 2.57% | 8.6% | ||
| 2025-08-12 | trump | INTC | bullish | 4.09% | 15.1% |
| |
| 2025-08-07 | trump | INTC | bearish | -3.01% | -16.4% |
| |
| 2025-08-04 | trump | AEO | bullish | 19.41% | 20.8% |
| |
| 2025-07-17 | trump | ADM | bearish | -1.25% | -6.6% |
| |
| 2025-07-07 | musk | TSLA | bearish | -5.29% | -0.1% | ||
| 2025-06-23 | musk | TSLA | bullish | 6.00% | -6.7% | ||
| 2025-06-05 | musk | TSLA | bearish | -13.99% | 9.0% | ||
| 2025-05-23 | trump | SPY | bearish | 0.00% | 0.0% | ||
| 2025-05-23 | trump | AAPL | bearish | -2.14% | 2.8% |
| |
| 2025-05-19 | trump | WMT | bearish | -0.28% | 6.8% |
| |
| 2025-04-21 | trump | SPY | bearish | 0.00% | 0.0% | ||
| 2025-04-17 | ackman | HTZ | bullish | 36.14% | -19.1% |
| |
| 2025-04-15 | trump | NVDA | bullish | 2.13% | -4.4% |
| |
| 2025-04-09 | trump | SPY | bullish | 0.00% | 0.0% | 90-day tariff pause announcement on 2025-04-09 | |
| 2025-04-09 | trump | DJT | bullish | -1.59% | 23.8% |
| 90-day tariff pause announcement on 2025-04-09 |
| 2025-04-07 | ackman | SPY | bearish | 0.00% | 0.0% | 90-day tariff pause announcement on 2025-04-09 | |
| 2025-03-27 | muddy-waters | APP | bearish | -22.55% | 26.5% |
| |
| 2025-03-11 | trump | TSLA | bullish | 5.84% | 29.8% | ||
| 2025-02-26 | fuzzy-panda | APP | bearish | -14.24% | 22.4% |
| |
| 2025-02-07 | ackman | UBER | bullish | 7.32% | 16.1% |
| |
| 2025-02-03 | trump | SPY | bearish | 0.00% | 0.0% | ||
| 2025-01-15 | muddy-waters | FTAI | bearish | -32.01% | 38.6% |
| |
| 2025-01-13 | ackman | HHH | bullish | 8.83% | -1.4% |
| |
| 2025-01-02 | hindenburg | CVNA | bearish | -2.31% | -2.8% |
|