FIGURE

muddy-waters

3 events (3 clean) · |AR| day 0 19.2% · hit rate 100%

DIRECTIONAL CAR BY WEEK

Does the implied move persist, revert, or grow?

Every studied post, most recent first

call

figure

ticker

date from

date to

date	figure	ticker	call	day-0 AR	dir w4	concurrence
2026-06-11	muddy-waters	ENSG	bearish	-3.09%	-11.4%	▼ 67/93 go 14 miss
2025-03-27	muddy-waters	APP	bearish	-22.55%	26.5%	▼ 27/94 go 36 miss
2025-01-15	muddy-waters	FTAI	bearish	-32.01%	38.6%	▼ 13/93 go 48 miss

legend

AR: abnormal return — the day's actual return minus the market-model expected return
|AR|: size of the abnormal return, direction ignored
CAR: cumulative abnormal return — daily ARs summed over a horizon
dir: directional CAR — CAR signed by the post's call; positive means the market moved the post's way
w1 / w4 / w13: 1-, 4- and 13-week horizons, 5 trading days per week
call: the post's implied direction — bullish or bearish
confounded: event overlapping earnings, a split or similar corporate news — flagged and excluded from the clean count